Prediction models – ready for use

Updated alternative Fistula Risk Score (ua-FRS) to include minimally-invasive pancreatoduodenectomy: pan-european validation

• Design: data of 952 patients from 26 center of the European Consortium of Minimally Invasive Pancreatic Surgery (E-MIPS) from 7 countries
• Validation: external validation in a-FRS dataset
• Publication: Mungroop T, et al.  Ann Surg 2019

Prediction of 3-year survival in patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma (becomes online after publication has been accepted)

• Design: data of 454 patients from Dutch Cancer Registry
• Validation: data of 298 patients from Belgian Cancer Registry and 2 centers in 2 countries
• Publication: submitted

Prediction of 3-year survival after resection after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer: the updated Amsterdam model

• International validation: data of 3.081 patients from 11 centers in 8 countries
• Publication: van Roessel S, et al. Eur J Surg Oncol 2019

Prediction of 5-year risk of recurrence in resected patients with grade 1 and 2 pancreas neuroendocrine tumors

• Design: data of 211 patients from 3 tertiary centers
• Validation: data of 342 patients from 7 international centers
• Publication: submitted

Prediction of 5-year conditional survival following pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer

• Design: 3.082 patients from Dutch nationwide registry data
• Publication: Latenstein A, et al. Ann Surg Onc 2020 

Prediction model for 3- and 5-year survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma

• Design: data of 1.007 patients from 12 centers in 5 countries
  
• Validation: data of 462 patients from 15 centers in 6 countries
• Publication: Moekotte A, et al. Eur J Surg Oncol 2020

Financial headroom per patient for novel prophylactic treatment strategies of delayed gastric emptying following pancreatoduodenectomy

• Design: data of 581 patients from 1 tertiary center
• Publication: Francken M, et al. HPB (Oxford) 2021

Preoperative risk of 90-day mortality after distal pancreatectomy with celiac axis resection (DP-CAR)

• Design and validation: international data from 20 European, 2 US, and 1 Japanese pancreas centers.
• Publication: Klompmaker S, et al.  Ann Surg Onc 2018

Old prediction models (updated/validated models above)

Alternative Fistula Risk Score (a-FRS): online calculator for fistula risk after pancreatoduodenectomy

• Design: data from the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit, nationwide registry, and University Hospital Southampton
• Validation: data from the University Hospital Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania
• Publication: Mungroop T. et al. Ann Surg 2017

Survival calculator: online calculator for survival 3-year after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

• Design: data from the Academic Medical Center Amsterdam
• Publication: Tol J, et al. Br J Surg 2015