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Prediction models – ready for use

Prediction of biliary etiology in patients with acute pancreatitis
Design: data of 767 patients from 10 Dutch centers from the prospective observational PWN-CORE registry
Publication: submitted

Prediction of complications after robotic pancreatoduodenectomy
Design: data of 235 patients from 1 tertiary center
Validation: data of 949 patients from 9 international centers
Publication: submitted

Preoperative distal fistula risk score (d-FRS) for distal pancreatectomy: design and internal-external validation
Design: data of 339 patients from 2 Italian centers.
Validation: internal-external validation of 1336 patient from 5 centers in the United States and the Netherlands
Publication: De Pastena / van Bodegraven, submitted

Intra-operative distal fistula risk score
Design: data of 339 patients from 2 Italian centers
Validation: Internal validation was done using bootstrapping
Publication: De Pastena / van Bodegraven, submitted

Updated alternative Fistula Risk Score (ua-FRS) to include minimally-invasive pancreatoduodenectomy: pan-european validation

  • Design: data of 952 patients from 26 center of the European Consortium of Minimally Invasive Pancreatic Surgery (E-MIPS) from 7 countries
  • Validation: external validation in a-FRS dataset
  • Publication: Mungroop T, et al.  Ann Surg 2019

Prediction of 3-years survival in patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma

Prediction of 3-year survival after resection after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer: the updated Amsterdam model

Prediction of 5-year risk of recurrence in resected patients with grade 1 and 2 pancreas neuroendocrine tumors

  • Design: data of 211 patients from 3 tertiary centers
  • Validation: data of 342 patients from 7 international centers
  • Publication: Genç C, et al.

Prediction of 5-year conditional survival following pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer

Prediction model for 3- and 5-year survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma

Old prediction models (updated/validated models above)

Alternative Fistula Risk Score (a-FRS): online calculator for fistula risk after pancreatoduodenectomy

  • Design: data from the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit, nationwide registry, and University Hospital Southampton
  • Validation: data from the University Hospital Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania
  • Publication: Mungroop T. et al. Ann Surg 2017

Survival calculator: online calculator for survival 3-year after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

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