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Prediction models – ready for use

Prediction of isolated local recurrence after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a nationwide cohort study.

  • Design: nationwide cohort study amongst 1693 patients who received surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2014-2019 in the Netherlands.
  • Validation: Concordance index of 0.66 and calibration slope of 0.99 after internal validation.
  • Publication: van Goor et al, submitted

Predicting long-term disease-free survival after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: a nationwide cohort study.

  • Design: nationwide cohort study amongst 836 patients who received surgery for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2014-2016 in the Netherlands.
  • Validation: Concordance index of 0.68 and calibration slope of 0.99 after internal validation.
  • Publication: van Goor et al, Ann Surg 2023

Tailoring the use of central pancreatectomy through prediction models for major morbidity and postoperative diabetes: international retrospective multicenter study

  • Design: International multicenter retrospective cohort study including 838 patients from 51 centers in 19 countries (2010-2021).
  • Publication: van Bodegraven et al, Ann Surg 2023

Radiomic-based preoperative-Fistula Risk Score (RAD-FRS) to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula prior to pancreatoduodenectomy

  • Design: data of 118 patients from 1 Dutch center
  • Validation: external validation of 57 patients from 1 center in Italy
  • Publication: Ingwersen et al – BJS Open 2023

Prediction of biliary etiology in patients with acute pancreatitis

  • Design: data of 767 patients from 10 Dutch centers from the prospective observational PWN-CORE registry
  • Publication: submitted

Prediction of complications after robotic pancreatoduodenectomy

  • Design: data of 235 patients from 1 tertiary center
  • Validation: data of 949 patients from 9 international centers
  • Publication: Napoli et al, Surgery 2023 

Preoperative distal fistula risk score (d-FRS) for distal pancreatectomy: design and internal-external validation

Intra-operative distal fistula risk score

Updated alternative Fistula Risk Score (ua-FRS) to include minimally-invasive pancreatoduodenectomy: pan-european validation

  • Design: data of 952 patients from 26 center of the European Consortium of Minimally Invasive Pancreatic Surgery (E-MIPS) from 7 countries
  • Validation: external validation in a-FRS dataset
  • Publication: Mungroop T, et al.  Ann Surg 2019

Prediction of 3-years survival in patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma

Prediction of 3-year survival after resection after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer: the updated Amsterdam model

Prediction of 5-year risk of recurrence in resected patients with grade 1 and 2 pancreas neuroendocrine tumors

Prediction of 5-year conditional survival following pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer

Prediction model for 3- and 5-year survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma

Old prediction models (updated/validated models above)

Alternative Fistula Risk Score (a-FRS): online calculator for fistula risk after pancreatoduodenectomy

  • Design: data from the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit, nationwide registry, and University Hospital Southampton
  • Validation: data from the University Hospital Verona and University Hospital of Pennsylvania
  • Publication: Mungroop T. et al. Ann Surg 2017

Survival calculator: online calculator for survival 3-year after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

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